Credit investigation in August the growth of public loans or negative growth by mortgage-dachiyouxiang

August survey: credit loans to the public or negative growth by stimulating mortgage credit survey: August and July is similar to the public or negative growth, by pulling mortgage reporter Yang Xiaoyan Shanghai, Beijing writer Ma Yuan reports from the twenty-first Century economic report reporter survey results, 8 monthly loan structure and growth, and does not seem to have in July too big gap. According to the central bank statistics, in July, RMB loans increased by 463 billion 600 million. Among them, the individual long-term loans (housing mortgage loans) increased by 477 billion 300 million yuan, non-financial enterprises and institutional groups (public loans) decreased by 2 billion 600 million yuan. According to the twenty-first Century economic report, the reporter of the state owned banks and the main shares of the line of investigation, due to weak demand, August negative growth in public loans, the overall growth will continue to be pulled by a loan, mainly personal housing mortgage loans. At least, in Shanghai, the growth of personal housing mortgage loans is likely to continue to decline. In July, the new increment dropped by about 29% compared with the new increment in June. According to a row of public loans or negative growth, the credit balance of August declined slightly from the previous month, a decrease of nearly 6% over the same period. "Recovery ring growth is greater than the growth of the ring, so the balance also dropped some.". The same period last year, the amount is almost halved." Insiders said the bank. Another state-owned big line personage discloses, the bank loans increased by less than 30 billion yuan last month. In addition, a line of credit management department also said that in August the ring of public loans was basically flat, but the decline was larger than the previous year. "Now the balance of public loans will rise by 5%-6% compared with the beginning of the year, a sharp decline in the first quarter of a lot." According to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter survey, at the head office level, in the five assets of trillion shares of the line, there are four pairs of public loans are negative growth. "Business demand is weak, and then banks have some assets packed out, there are also some impact." A group of senior executives said. Tianfeng Securities chief banking analyst Liao Zhiming also said the analysis, is expected in August business loans (excluding bill financing) or negative growth, but the fundamental reason the enterprise effective credit demand, but also from the point of view of bonds. As of August 29th, in August, local government debt net financing 670 billion 600 million yuan, rebounded sharply, the impact on credit data has increased; secondly, the scale of corporate bond financing increased, the net financing in August was about 300 billion yuan, the substitution effect of credit is obvious. Liao Zhiming also predicted that the bill financing has increased, or increased by about 50000000000 yuan. The discount data of a large bank showed that the discount scale in August was the highest for the whole year, with an increase of over 4%. For investment, there has been little change. However, in August, Societe Generale and Guangdong Development Bank have issued policies to tighten the real estate related financing. Industrial Bank stipulates that the new development loan business does not do the three or four line city, also does not intervene in the Wang project, strictly control the leverage ratio. Growth is still dependent on personal housing mortgage loans, according to the twenty-first Century economic report reporter survey, in the five assets of trillions of shares of the line, in August each of the average increase of about 20 billion yuan

8月信贷调查:对公贷款或负增长 增长靠房贷拉动   8月信贷调查: 与7月相似,对公或负增长,靠房贷拉动   本报记者 杨晓宴 特约撰稿 马 媛 上海、北京报道   从21世纪经济报道记者调研结果看,8月信贷结构和增长,似乎并不会和7月有太大差距。   据央行统计,7月,人民币贷款增加4636亿。其中,个人中长期贷款(住房按揭贷款)增加4773亿元,非金融企业及机关团体(对公贷款)则减少26亿元。   据21世纪经济报道记者对国有大行和主要股份行的调研,因需求疲软,8月对公贷款多为负增长,整体增长将继续由个贷拉动,主要是个人住房按揭贷款。   至少,在上海地区,个人住房按揭贷款增长环比很可能还在继续下降。7月新增量就比6月新增量下降了约29%。   对公贷款或负增长   据某大行统计,其8月信贷余额较上月有微弱下降,同比下降近6%。“回收环比增幅大于投放环比增幅,所以余额上还降了一些。同比来看,投放量几乎是腰斩。”该行内部人士表示。   另外一家国有大行人士透露,该行各项贷款比上月增加不到300亿元。   另有某大行授信管理部人士也表示,8月对公贷款环比基本持平,但同比跌幅较大。“现在对公贷款余额较年初也就涨个5%-6%,一季度猛增的回落了不少。”   另据21世纪经济报道记者调研了解,总行层面,在五家资产上万亿的股份行中,有四家对公贷款均为负增长。“企业需求疲软,然后银行有一些资产打包转出,也有一些影响。”某股份行高层表示。   天风证券银行业首席分析师廖志明也分析称,预计8月企业贷款(不含票据融资)或负增长,除了企业有效信贷需求不足的根本原因,还可以从发债角度来看。   截至8月29日,8月地方政府债净融资6706亿元,环比大幅回升,对信贷数据的影响有所增强;其次,企业债券融资规模增大,8月净融资额约3000亿元,对信贷的替代作用明显。   廖志明同时预测,票据融资有所增加,或增加500多亿元。某大行的票据贴现数据显示,8月贴现规模确实为全年最高,环比增长超4%。   投向方面,几乎没有变化。不过,8月兴业和广发银行均有政策下发,收紧房地产相关融资。   兴业银行则规定新增开发贷业务不做三四线城市,也不介入地王项目,严格控制杠杆比例。   增长依旧靠个人住房按揭贷款   据21世纪经济报道记者调研,在五家资产上万亿的股份行中,8月每家个贷平均新增了约200亿元,最多的增长近300亿元。也就是说,5家股份行的个贷新增了约1000亿元。从构成来看,约60%的新增来自个人住房按揭贷款,40%来自信用卡。   反观7月数据,住户部门贷款中,短期贷款减少197亿元,中长期贷款增加4773亿元;以8月五家股份行的个人贷款结构推测,整体个贷增长环比或有一定增加。   天风证券廖志明预计,8月居民中长期贷款新增4500亿元,短期新增1000亿元。   “总行还在大力推动住房按揭贷款业务,尤其是一二线重点城市。”某华北股份行零售人士告诉21世纪经济报道记者,为鼓励分行推动个人房贷,今年的个人房贷投放在利润考核时都增加20bp,比如,原本存贷款利差在0.5%,考核时按0.7%来计,以提升分行相关业务利润。“按原来的内部收益计价规则,利率下浮的房贷都是微利,甚至不赚钱。”   交通银行首席风险官杨东平在交行中期业绩发布会上表示,依然会将个人住房贷款作为重要信贷投向,不存在房贷额度收紧,预计下半年将保持上半年的发展势头。   不过,地区分化已经出现。   以上海为例,根据央行上海总部的统计,上海地区7月个人住房按揭贷款增加255.2亿元,环比少增103.2亿元。即,7月新增量比6月新增量下降了约29%。多名股份行上海分行零售部人士表示,8月投放减少,预计环比新增还将下降。   某股份行上海分行零售部负责人表示:“9月到目前为止,投放更少。受市场传闻影响,8月末房屋交易量明显增加,但主要还是二手房,受审贷周期影响,对投放产生影响,要到9月末和10月显现。”   (本报记者王晓对本文亦有贡献) 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: